Friday, 8 September 2017

Remind yourself how little you know...(Overconfidence kills)

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One of the traits that hampers executives and leaders in many realms is over-confidence.  And so 95 percent of college professors think they have above-average teaching skills.  And Time magazine asked Americans, are you in the top one percent of earners?  And 19 percent of Americans believe they are in the top one percent of earners.  And yet, some people have the ability to look inside themselves and say, "Okay, I’m over-confident.  Actually let me stop. I missed something that will be germane."  

And so two researchers gave tests to business executives and tests about their own industries. And then they asked them, "How confident are you that the answers to these tests about your own industries are correct?" And people in the advertising industry were convinced they got 80 percent of the answers right on these tests.  In fact, they got 60 percent wrong.  The most over-confident industry was the computer industry.  And so people in the computer business thought they got 95 percent of the answers on the test correct.  In fact, they got 80 percent of them wrong.  

And so we all have this tremendous bias to be over-confident, over-value our abilities to pick out evidence that confirms what we already believe.  And so a wise executive says, “Hey, I’ve got an over-confidence bias.  I need to build modesty bootstraps for myself.”  Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s partner in his investment business, says, "Okay, here’s what I’m going to do to control my over-confidence.  Here’s what I’m going to do to bias myself in the opposite direction."

Peter Drucker, the great management guru had a modesty step. He said, "When you make a decision, write it on a piece of paper, seal it in an envelop for nine months, open it after nine months, and you’ll see that a third of your decisions were right, a third were wrong, and a third somewhere in between. But in most cases your reasoning will be completely irrelevant.  And if you do that, you’re going to remind yourself how little you know and you’ll build modesty bootstraps."  So you don’t want to be so modest that you don’t’ do anything, and just sit there like a puddle, but when you do things, you constantly want to be checking for your own biases.

Wednesday, 2 August 2017

opposition of imposition

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This question arises again and again. If a permanent solution is not found, it can pose grave threat to the unity of the country.
I am not going get into which language is the richest, oldest or most spoken. I am going to write from a dispassionate and objective point of view.
Let’s admit learning an additional language for most people is difficult. To attain expertise and fluency to speak in public, write official documents or to pass competitive examinations in even harder. For many of us English is like a second tongue on par with the first. For a non-native speaker mastering English is an extremely daunting task.
Think of yourself as living in a remote hamlet in the western ghats. Your son goes to the only school in the village. A government run, Kannada medium school. Yes, they teach both English and Hindi. Teachers of both these languages are ill qualified, non-native individuals who are themselves not fluent. What your son learns in this school is some form of Kinglish and Khindi. He does not ever use these languages in his daily life. By the time he gets out of school, he is proficient in neither of these two languages.
When it is time get a college education, he realizes all higher education is in English. You put him through coaching classes. He works doubly hard and comes to acquire English language skills at functional level.
He gets into college. Still, he finds the courses hard. Overtime his English language skills improve. After graduation, he finds a well paying job. The language used at work is, of course, English.
You are all happy. After all the hard work, your son is doing well. Congratulations.
Unfortunately, all kids aren't that lucky. In fact, most do not succeed. They drop out after high school find employment in the informal sector. Most of those who manage to go to college don't do all that well. They end up with jobs that are less than satisfactory.
What is the reason that most rural students are less than successful?
Isn't it because there are absolutely no jobs for Kannada experts? Did whatever he learned of Hindi any use to him? Wouldn't it have been better if more emphasis was paid to English language proficiency than wasting precious time on learning languages that one may never ever use. For these kids learning Hindi is as difficult as learning English. But, ultimately, at least, they benefit from the knowledge of English.
If Hindi, or Sanskrit for that matter, is made compulsory without creating a massive body of qualified teachers and subsequent employment opportunities, you are condemning half the children in the country to poverty.
On top of that, the Hindi taught is Doordarshan Hindi! At least, Bollywood Hindi has some use.
Coming back to the question at hand. Yes. South Indians should come together oppose the central government’s language policy not just because it is insanely unfair but more so because it adversely affects the livelihood of our future generations. Education is a serious matter. It has a large bearing on not only personal but also overall national growth and development.
These policies are having destructive impact on backward and weaker sections of society. Most of the wealthy and upper caste people avail English education. Such policies amount to sentencing a huge section of society to perpetual backwardness.
It must be a fundamental right of every family and every student to choose what they learn.
Our political class is more blind than shortsighted. Politics of language and religion will destroy the country.
If not for Any other reson , just because Southern States are generating Money, that north is wasting spending on spread of Hindi . Here are some interesting facts
Who Generates Money for India ?
  • GDP cotribution The South delivers a fourth of India's GDP. It is not only an economic bellwether with low unemployment, a high rate of industrialisation and a per capita GDP that is over double that of the Hindi belt, it is also leaps ahead on human development and social indicators.
  • Literacy :Child development indices are double to 7 times higher than the Hindi states, literacy rates tend towards an average of 80% with a 10-point difference against the North, and accessibility to health and hygiene facilities is radically better.
  • HDI : The gulf in human development is so stark that while fertility rates in the South are closer to that of Western Europe, much of the North is still getting their act together on basic issues like birthing babies without losing mothers.
  • HongKong - North India: The bottom line is that the development politics of the South has made it economically comparable to Hong Kong, while the atavistic politics of the North has dropped it far down the scales in the last six decades.
How does the Central Govt Distribute that money ?
  • Robin Hoodwa Govt: In essence Delhi takes(loots ?) Money from South and gives it to North .
Whats The solution ?
Secession? No. The Indian nation is sacrosanct and India only wins when all Indians have a decent life, education, health care, jobs and social dignity. All means all. Women. Dalits. Muslims. South and North. East and West.
Southern States Regional Block? Yes : The Southern states should forma regional block within India, and make center stop this loot of money, and punish South for Norths incompetency to develop.
Language
South Indians Should Learn Hindi > For What joy ? There is no tangible benefit for a South Indian kid to learn hindi , apart from the fact that if for any reason they have to work in a Central Govt Job in Northern belt. In any private Job the South Indians are surviving and infact excelling: Sundar Pichai (Google CEO) , Indira Nooyi(Pepsi CEO) , Satya nadela(Microsoft CEO)
North Indians Should Learn Southern Languages ? Yes: For their own Good, so that when north Indians kids grow up and migrate to south, for their own survival North Indian Kids should be taught atleast one southern language.
Should UPSC support regional Languages? Yes: UPSC currently supports question paper in Hindi and English (example NDA , CDS ). This puts regional language kids who did their education in their mother tongue at considerable disadvantage than a Hindi medium only kid.
Who pays for Spread of Hindi? Not South India: South India should stop center from wasting its money in nonsense pursuits of spreading Hindi.

Friday, 28 April 2017

Should prostitution be legalized?

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I don't believe prostitution should be illegal.  Along with all the usual reasons, I'm curious about how society would evolve if prostitution were legal.  
Would there be as many male as female prostitutes?  Probably not, but what would the ratio be?
Would the fraction of the population with STDs increase or decrease?  Probably increase, but maybe relaxed familiarity would prompt more care.
Would families continue to discourage their children from becoming prostitutes?  Probably, but maybe if there was enough economic advantage over other opportunities . . .
Would 'going out for sex' become as acceptable as going out for dinner?  Would there be prostitutional equivalents of KFC's, McDonald's, and your local cafeteria?  Would husbands and wives go out together?  Probably not, but if celebrities did it and it became a status symbol . . .
I don't see a scenario where civilization comes crashing down.
Criminalizing prostitution leads to tremendous suffering and harm. The supposed “evils” of sex work—trafficking, abuse, coercion, poverty, violence, and so on—are the result of sex work being criminalized, not the result of sex work itself.
Basically, people feel icky about other folks selling sex, and want it to go away, so they support legislation that doesn't make it go away but does result in tremendous suffering.
AV Flox, a journalist who writes about sex work, recently wrote an amazing piece about this:
People who support criminalization of sex work, support abuse of the most vulnerable people.
No "victimless crime" should be illegal. Renting your body out should be a basic right.Human trafficking (forcing another to work against their will) should be illegal Having a disease and endangering others without their knowledge should be illegal Cheating on one's spouse if one contracted not to do so should be a violation of that contract.
Singapore's approach, where it is licensed, regulated, and taxed, is a better approach than keeping it illegal.
I originally answered a different question… as the banner says. “illegal” not “decriminalized”. They are different things. Decriminalization is a good first step but full legalization is what is really needed.

Saturday, 15 April 2017

தமிழக விவசாயத்தின் இன்றைய நிலையும்,அதில் உள்ள சூழ்ச்சிகளும்

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            தமிழ் நாட்டில் அரசாங்க வேலைகளில் இருப்பவர்கள் ஒட்டு மொத்த மக்கள் தொகையின் அடிப்படையில் பார்த்தால் 1 சதவீதம் தான்.... மற்றவர்களின் வருமானம் ஒவ்வொரு தொழிலை சார்ந்தது.... வேலையின் தன்மையை சார்ந்தது 

முதலில் அரசாங்க வேளையில் இருப்பவரின் வருமானத்தை விவசாய பொரு‌ட்களுடன் ஒப்பிடுவது தவறு...... அதற்கு விவசாய கூலி வாங்குபவர்களுடன் தான் ஒப்பிட வேண்டும்.... இன்று ஒரு விவசாயியின் ஒருநாள் சம்பளம் குறைந்தது 500..... அதாவது மாதத்திற்கு 25 x 500 = 12,500/-... அதே போல் தனியார் கடைகளில் மாத வருமானத்திற்கு வேலை பார்த்தால் அதிக பட்சம் ரூபாய் 6000 லிருந்து 8000 எட்டாயிரம் மட்டுமே..... இந்த வருமானம் ஒரு விவாசாயியுடன் ஒப்பிட்டு பார்த்தால் மிக மிக குறைவு... மேலும் வேலை பளு மிக அதிகம்.... குறிப்பாக சென்னை மற்றும் இதர வியாபாரத்தை மையம் கொண்ட நகரங்களில் மாத வருமானத்திற்கு ஒரு ஜவுளி கடை அல்லது ஏதேனும் மல்ட்டி பிராண்ட் கடைகளில் வேலை பார்ப்பவர்களின் நிலையை எண்ணி பார்க்க வேண்டும்.... அவர்கள் ஒரு நாள் வேலை நேரம் குறைந்தது 9 மணி நேரம்.... எந்த அரசு விடுமுறையும் கிடையாது... அங்கு உட்கார்ந்து வேலை பார்க்க முடியாது... மாத வருமானம் மிக சொற்பமே (6000- 8000) .... ஆனால் என்ன செய்வது வேறு வழியில்லை.... 

விவசாயத்தில் சொந்த நிலம் வைத்து இருப்பவர்களுக்கு எந்த கஷ்டமும் அவ்வளவாக இல்லை.... உதாரணத்திற்கு ஐந்து ஏக்கர் நிலம் இருந்தால் வருடத்திற்கு மூன்று அல்லது இரண்டு போகம் நெல் சாகுபடி செய்யலாம்.....  கம்பம், போடிநாயக்கனூர், உத்தமபாளையம், சின்னமனூர், தேவராம், பெரியகுளம் போன்ற ஊர்களில் மூன்று போகம் நெல் சாகுபடி செய்யபடுகிறது.... 

மேலும் இந்த  பிரதேசங்களில் மாந்தோப்புகள் அதிகம்... இதில் வருடத்திற்கு மூன்று மாதங்கள் உழைத்தால் போதும்... நல்ல வருமானம்... சொந்த தோப்பு இருக்க வேண்டிய அவசியம் இல்லை.. குத்தகைக்கு எடுத்தும் செய்யலாம்.... நிரந்தர மிராசுதார்களாக மிதமான செல்வந்தர்களாக இப்போதும் பலர் இருக்கிறார்கள்.... 

ஒரே ஒரு குறைபாடு தான் விவசாய தொ‌ழி‌லில்..... இன்று நல்ல கூலீ ஆட்கள் கிடைப்பது மிக மிக கஷ்டம்.... காரணம் இப்போது விவசாயிகளின் உழைப்பு முன்பு இருந்ததை போல் இல்லை...... மேனா மினிக்கி வேலை தான் அதிகம்.... 

விவசாயிகளின் இன்றைய ஒரே நோக்கம்.. அரசாங்கத்திடமிருந்து பல இலவசங்களை பெறவேண்டும்.... குறைந்த வட்டிக்கு கடன் வழங்க வேண்டும்... வழக்கமாக அதை முழுவதும் அப்படியே தள்ளுபடி செய்து விட வேண்டும்..... இப்படி இருந்தால் இந்த நாடு எப்படி முன்னேறும்...... 

விவசாயிகளுக்கு அரசாங்கம் செய்து கொடுக்க வேண்டிய முக்கிய பொருப்பு மற்றும் கடமை போதுமான நீராதரத்தை பெருக்குவது......ஆனால் நாம் அதை பற்றி சிறிதும் கவலை படுவதாக தெரிவதில்லை...... எதெற்கெடுத்தாலும் தேவையில்லாமல் தன் சுயநலத்திற்காக வெத்து போராட்டம் செய்வதுதான் இன்றைய ஃபேஷன்..... இதில் அய்யாக்கண்ணு போன்றவர்களுக்கு மிகபெரிய லாபம் கிடைக்கும்..... பல அரசியல் சூக்ஷமங்கள் இதில் அடங்கி இருக்கிறது....